Signaler un abus

1) Il y a bien un réchauffement du climat de 1975 à 2003, et si le rapport s’arrête à cette date, après discussions orageuses, c’est parce que la courbe qui monte régulièrement, connaît aussi des fluctuations dont les minimum coïncident avec la chute de l’activité du soleil, et il est actuellement dans son cycle de onze ans au bas du bas. « Personne n’a jamais douté de sa contribution, à part les ayatollah du climat. Bien sur, le cycle solaire intervient mais il ne contrecarre que très temporairement les effets du réchauffement », explique Jean-Loup Puget.

Voila 2 emails ou extraits du CRU d’EastAnglia

From : Mick Kelly <[email protected]>
To : <[email protected]>
Subject : RE : Global temperature
Date : Sun, 26 Oct 2008 09:02:00 +1300

Yeah, it wasn’t so much 1998 and all that that I was concerned about, used
to dealing with that, but the possibility that we might be going through a
longer - 10 year - period of relatively stable temperatures beyond what you
might expect from La Nina etc.

Speculation, but if I see this as a possibility then others might also.
Anyway, I’ll maybe cut the last few points off the filtered curve before I
give the talk again as that’s trending down as a result of the end effects
and the recent cold-ish years.

Enjoy Iceland and pass on my best wishes to Astrid.

Mick

> -----Original Message-----
> From : [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
> Sent : 24 October 2008 20:39
> To : Mick Kelly
> Subject : Re : Global temperature
>
>
> Mick,
> They have noticed for years - mostly wrt
> the warm year of 1998. The recent coolish years
> down to La Nina. When I get this question I
> have 1991-2000 and 2001-2007/8 averages to hand.
> Last time I did this they were about 0.2 different,
> which is what you’d expect.
> In Iceland at a meeting that Astrid invited me to.
> Cold with snow on the ground, but things cheap as the
> currency has gone down 30-40% wrt even the pound.
>
>
> Cheers
> Phil
>
> > Hi Phil
> >
> > Just updated my global temperature trend graphic for a
> public talk and
> > noted
> > that the level has really been quite stable since 2000 or
> so and 2008
> > doesn’t look too hot.
> >
> > Anticipating the sceptics latching on to this soon, if they
> haven’t done
> > already, has anyone had a good look at the large-scale circulation
> > anomalies
> > over this period ? I haven’t noticed anything consistent
> coming up in the
> > annual climate reviews but then I wasn’t really looking.
> >
> > Be awkward if we went through a early 1940s type swing !
> >
> > Hope all’s well with you
> >
> > Mick
> >
> > ____________________________________________
> >
> > Mick Kelly
> > PO Box 4260 Kamo
> > Whangarei 0141 New Zealand
> > email : [email protected]
> > web : www.tiempocyberclimate.org
> > ____________________________________________
> >
> >
>
>

From : Kevin Trenberth <[email protected]>
To : Michael Mann <[email protected]>
Subject : Re : BBC U-turn on climate
Date : Mon, 12 Oct 2009 08:57:37 -0600
Cc : Stephen H Schneider <[email protected]>, Myles Allen <[email protected]>, peter stott <[email protected]>, « Philip D. Jones » <[email protected]>, Benjamin Santer <[email protected]>, Tom Wigley <[email protected]>, Thomas R Karl <[email protected]>, Gavin Schmidt <[email protected]>, James Hansen <[email protected]>, Michael Oppenheimer <[email protected]>

...The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming : but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate....

J’avoue avoir bien ri en lisant le point 1 car le CRU (emails ci dessus) et le Giec (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUS...) sont incapables d’expliquer la stagnation et la baisse des températures or dans le rapport la raison est évidente:l’activité solaire. On ne peut conclure que 2 choses :
* l’académie de sciences est incompétente et n’a rien compris ;
et/ou
* le CRU/giec sont incompétents de ne pas comprendre une choses aussi évidente

Je propose à JL Puget de contacter le CRU/Giec de sa découverte phénoménale...